Rising Risk in the Red Sea?
Geopolitical tensions and attacks in the Red Sea have increased since the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict. In the wake of this conflict, merchant shipping was affected by missile…
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Seafreight Insights
Read our Seafreight Insights to find out about the latest developments in the global sea cargo industry. Get an update on trade and rate developments as well as flexible solutions offered by cargo-partner to deal with the current challenges.
The seafreight market in 2025 was characterized by high volatility and geopolitical instability, driven in particular by the Red Sea crisis and US trade tariffs. These factors caused major disruptions in terms of trade patterns and freight rates. With political tensions expected to persist, the market is likely to remain challenging.
Key market dynamics and trends include:
- The mood surrounding the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China currently seems more relaxed. It remains to be seen whether this will last.
- The US has announced that it will not implement its retaliatory tariffs on Chinese imports until at least November 10, 2026. The current tariff of ten percent will remain in effect.
- Both countries have agreed to temporarily suspend their reciprocal port fees for one year.
- Port congestion and labor shortages continue to affect major hubs, particularly in North America and Europe, leading to ongoing delays and potential last-minute port omissions.
- Weather-related disruptions in the Asia-Pacific region remain unpredictable, causing recurring delays to vessel berthing operations.
- The situation in the Red Sea remains unclear but is under close observation. A return to the Suez passage in Q1 is not expected as shipping lines remain cautious. However, we may see a change in policy after spring, depending on how stable the "ceasefire agreement" proves to be.
- Overall rates started to increase at the beginning of November, especially on long-haul trades from Asia to the US and Europe. This was driven largely by carriers’ efforts to strengthen their position ahead of rate negotiations with their customers. The introduction of blank sailings has also continued.
- Demand growth in 2026 is expected to be modest, at around 3%. However, with the fleet expected to expand by roughly 3.6%, capacity growth is once again set to outpace demand.
Current market assessment from December 1, 2025:
Legend: traffic lights showing current status, arrow indicates possible development of transport rates.
Current Key Takeaways
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