Trade Analysis: Transpacific

Situation

Space is available, and carriers did not create a large roll pool on this trade. In the short term, rates for March are showing no signs of recovery and are expected to remain low throughout the month.

 Obstacles

Currently, there are no major obstacles on this trade route.

 Outlook

The TPM conference will take place from 1–4 March, and it is expected that some long-term contracts will be finalized between shippers and shipping lines. Negotiations are slower than usual this year, with shippers using the time to negotiate better conditions. The long-term contracts are expected to be slightly lower than in the previous contract period. We also need to closely monitor US trade policy; the latest 10% global tariff could benefit China. It remains to be seen whether this will result in increased volumes during the next period. Both sides are now waiting to finalise the new contract, which is due to come into effect in May 2026.

Due to the military conflict in the Middle East, we can expect to see carriers increasing short-term rates for the second half of March onwards. Emergency bunker surcharges will also be implemented for this trade.

Main Ports: Far East to US West Coast

Source: Market average rates for 40‘ containers according to www.xeneta.com

Main Ports: Far East to US East Coast

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